Despite bold rhetoric, analysts say Riyadh-Islamabad’s new military pact won’t alter India’s post-Sindoor doctrine or strategic restraint calculus
A New Pact, But Familiar Fault Lines
On September 17, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact in Riyadh, declaring that aggression against one would be treated as an attack on both—invoking a NATO-style collective security clause.
- The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) formalizes decades of military camaraderie between the two nations.
- For Pakistan, still reeling from India’s May airstrikes (Operation Sindoor), the pact offers symbolic reassurance and strategic optics.
- Yet, seasoned observers remain unconvinced of its deterrent value—especially against a resolute India.
Kugelman: “This Won’t Deter India”
Michael Kugelman, renowned South Asia analyst and Deputy Director at the Wilson Center, minced no words.
- “This pact would not deter India from attacking Pakistan,” he stated on X.
- Kugelman emphasized that India’s evolving doctrine post-Sindoor is grounded in swift, calibrated retaliation to terrorism, not in fear of alliances.
- India’s strategic calculus, he argued, weighs geography and pragmatism, not fraternal declarations made in Riyadh.
The Past: Cooperation, Not Commitment
The Saudi-Pakistan relationship has long been transactional:
- Pakistani troops have protected Islamic holy sites, while Saudi petrodollars have propped up Pakistan’s economy.
- The new pact codifies informal understandings, but the key difference is timing—coming months after India’s precision strikes and as the region watches US reliability and Iran’s assertiveness with unease.
Post-Sindoor India: Cool, Calculated, Capable
India’s May 7 Operation Sindoor changed regional perceptions:
- It demonstrated real-time ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) supremacy and hypersonic capability,
- Utilized S-400s to thwart aerial threats, and
- Executed BrahMos strikes deep into PoK with minimal escalation.
India’s response to the Pahalgam massacre was surgical, not reactionary—a trend likely to continue, pact or no pact.
Strategic Depth or Diplomatic Theatre?
While Islamabad hails the SMDA as a “diplomatic victory”, the pact is unlikely to trigger military intervention from Riyadh in case of an India-Pakistan clash.
- Saudi Arabia is India’s third-largest trading partner with $52 billion in bilateral trade, and a critical energy supplier.
- Riyadh’s focus is on Vision 2030, economic diversification, and balancing relations with both Delhi and Beijing.
- Kugelman noted, “Riyadh’s priorities trump fraternal oaths,” calling Saudi involvement in a Kashmir conflict “highly unlikely.”
Nuclear Overtones, But No Guarantees
Speculation abounds that the pact hints at Pakistani nuclear deterrence backing Saudi Arabia—an arrangement long rumored in strategic circles.
- However, any reciprocal guarantee from Riyadh remains non-committal and opaque.
- Strategic expert Brahma Chellaney called the pact “asymmetric,” noting that Pakistan may extend a nuclear shield, but Saudi reciprocation is a non-starter.
India’s Calculated Response
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded with restraint.
- “We will study the implications for our national security,” said spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, adding that India will defend its comprehensive security in all domains.
- There was no panic, but clear signs of geopolitical parsing.
Saudi’s Real Game: Regional Hedging, Not Kashmir
Strategists point out that Saudi Arabia’s motivations lie elsewhere:
- Access to Pakistan’s strategic assets amid rising Gulf-Iran tensions.
- Hedging against U.S. unpredictability and regional instability post-Israel-Hamas confrontations.
- No appetite for military entanglement in South Asia’s complex Kashmir quagmire.
For India: Diversify Deterrence, Deepen Partnerships
The Saudi-Pakistan pact is a reminder, not a red flag, for India.
- New Delhi’s focus will remain on:
- Accelerating indigenous hypersonic development
- Strengthening ties within the QUAD
- Engaging Gulf states like the UAE that align with its moderate strategic posture
- India’s deterrence is not based on alliances but on capabilities, readiness, and global diplomatic weight.
