Who Is India’s Foremost National Security Threat? A Complex Puzzle with No Clear Answers
Identifying a clear pecking order for national security threats is a complex task in India, unlike in the United States, where strategic priorities are explicitly stated.
- The absence of an official policy document has led to fragmented narratives and academic disagreement, leaving the field of national security discourse underdeveloped.
- This ambiguity creates a scenario where India struggles to define its core security concerns or rank them based on strategic urgency.
Pakistan: The Traditional Security Adversary
For decades, Pakistan has been regarded as India’s most significant security challenge.
- India has fought three wars and several border conflicts with Pakistan, making the animosity historically entrenched.
- Even after the creation of Bangladesh in 1971, Pakistan adopted a cost-effective proxy war strategy, especially in Jammu and Kashmir.
- India continues to deploy over 500,000 soldiers in the region, draining financial and military resources to counter Pakistan’s tactics.
This long-term engagement with Pakistan’s military strategy solidifies its place as a persistent national security concern, both in conventional and unconventional warfare.
China: A Rising Power and a Growing Threat
Despite Pakistan’s historical role, many now view China as India’s primary strategic threat, surpassing all others.
- The 1962 war, unresolved border disputes, and massive Chinese defence spending highlight the scale of the threat.
- China’s string of pearls strategy, aimed at encircling India through regional partnerships, signals strategic containment efforts.
- The possibility of a two-front war, involving both China and Pakistan, makes the threat even more serious.
Even without open warfare, China causes significant economic strain through a chronic trade imbalance.
- India faces a long-standing trade deficit, harming domestic manufacturing despite internal policy efforts.
- China’s gains from this trade dynamic reinforce its role as both an economic and military challenge.
Developmental Gaps as National Security Concerns
A different school of thought, primarily among development economists, views internal socio-economic challenges as the true national security issues.
- India’s low per capita income, skill shortages, and high unemployment create structural vulnerabilities that weaken national resilience.
- These experts argue that poverty and inequality are breeding grounds for conflict and instability, diverting focus from external threats.
This perspective pushes for greater investment in education, healthcare, and employment, arguing that these issues are foundational to long-term national security.
Internal Security Challenges: On the Decline
Previously, internal security—such as insurgencies and communal unrest—was often considered a major threat.
- However, a decade of improved law and order has pushed these concerns down the threat hierarchy.
- While still relevant, internal threats are now considered less immediate compared to external state actors.
India’s Hesitant Security Discourse
India’s inability to officially rank its security threats creates strategic confusion and hesitancy.
- In contrast, the U.S. intelligence report of 2025 clearly prioritizes China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) in a structured framework.
- India lacks such clarity, and debates over whether China or Pakistan is the “number one” threat remain unresolved and under-discussed.
This analytical gap limits India’s ability to conduct predictive assessments, especially regarding future military confrontations with China or Pakistan.
The Overlooked Scenarios
There are strategic propositions that rarely get the attention they deserve:
- Baluchistan’s independence, if supported diplomatically by India, could weaken Pakistan’s unity and its proxy capabilities.
- A Sino-Pak nexus, potentially triggering a two-front war, remains a real possibility. India must prepare cohesive, cost-effective responses to such a scenario.
- Even smaller neighbors—like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Myanmar—have influenced India’s security posture by occasionally aligning with external powers.
Yet, these discussions are often avoided in public and academic forums, with policymakers showing reluctance to address regional threats transparently.
A Call for Open Dialogue and Strategic Clarity
The US model of open threat assessment serves as a subtle reminder for India to approach national security with more strategic honesty.
- A robust public debate, grounded in objective threat analysis, would allow India to develop proactive policies rather than reactive strategies.
- Avoiding discussion for the sake of diplomatic courtesy often results in missed opportunities to strengthen defence preparedness.
Until India articulates a clear and structured national security policy, the question of who poses the greatest threat will continue to spark debate without resolution.
