With exports rebounding and EVs scaling, analysts project strong earnings, despite domestic motorcycle market share concerns
Bajaj Auto Ltd. reported a 25% YoY rise in net profit to ₹2,749 crore for Q3FY26, with revenue up 23% to ₹16,204 crore—largely in line with expectations, but with strong signals for future upside. While domestic market share losses remain a concern, brokerages are upbeat on exports, EV traction, and new product momentum.
Analysts see Bajaj riding tailwinds in exports and electric vehicles, with balance sheet strength enabling aggressive, strategic bets.
Exports Deliver a Strong Comeback
Q3FY26 marked a turning point in Bajaj’s export performance:
- Export volumes topped 600,000 units — the first time in 15 quarters
- Export revenue hit ₹544 crore
- 15–20% YoY growth in volume
- Revenue approaching all-time high in dollar terms
“We see a strong earnings upswing ahead, led by exports and EV portfolio profitability,” said Antique Stock Broking, which maintained a ‘Buy’ rating and raised the target to ₹10,810 from ₹9,900.
EV Scaling and Product Refreshes in Focus
With Chetak EVs and three-wheelers gaining momentum, Bajaj is positioning itself as a viable domestic EV player. The company is also planning eight new refreshes to revive domestic demand, especially beyond the Pulsar brand.
Antique cited these as key to arresting domestic share erosion, especially in the 125cc+ motorcycle segment, where Bajaj has lagged rivals.
Can Bajaj’s electric pivot and product overhaul deliver the domestic turnaround investors want?
Motilal Oswal retained a ‘Neutral’ rating with a ₹9,416 target, noting:
- Recovery in exports and EVs are positives
- But market share loss in premium motorcycles is a persistent headwind
- Success of the KTM turnaround post-acquisition remains a key monitorable
Meanwhile, JM Financial downgraded the stock to ‘Reduce’, citing:
- Modest recovery in two-wheeler share (currently 10.5%, down from 12.1% in Jan 2024)
- Underwhelming response to non-Pulsar refreshes
- Low conviction in material market share gains despite upcoming launches
Strategic Strength: Fortress Balance Sheet and Global Bets
Bajaj Auto’s debt-free balance sheet remains a strategic asset:
- Supports investments in KTM, EVs, and its financing business
- Enables continued shareholder returns amid expansion
- Aids resilience in a highly competitive domestic market
Antique believes this sets the stage for a valuation re-rating in the coming quarters.
Market Snapshot
- Stock price (Feb 2, 2026): ₹9,336.50 (▼1.72%)
- 52-week range: ₹7,088.25 – ₹9,888.00
- Market cap: ₹1.65 trillion
- YTD performance: +1.7% vs. Nifty 50’s -5%
Despite modest YTD gains, Bajaj Auto’s stock is now in analyst crosshairs for re-evaluation, depending on near-term execution.
TL;DR
Bajaj Auto’s Q3FY26 results were in line, with 25% net profit growth and exports rebounding sharply. Analysts see export strength and EV momentum driving future upside, but flag persistent domestic market share concerns, especially in premium bikes.
AI Summary
- Net profit up 25% YoY; revenue up 23% to ₹16,204 crore
- Exports top 600K units, with double-digit growth
- EV scale-up, KTM investment seen as growth levers
- Domestic market share under pressure, particularly in 125cc+ segment
- Analyst targets: ₹10,810 (Antique), ₹9,416 (Motilal), downgraded to ‘Reduce’ by JM Financial
