Technical View: Nifty Must Clear 25,300–25,350 to Confirm Uptrend as VIX Nears 15-Month Low
India VIX tumbles to multi-month trough, boosting market confidence
India VIX Signals Calm
The India VIX plunged to 11.48, its lowest close since April 26, 2024, down 4.17%, underscoring renewed stability and bullish sentiment among traders.
- Steep drop after brief uptick reflects easing fear premium
- Lower volatility may attract fresh buying interest
Nifty 50 Outlook for July 16
The Nifty 50 snapped a five-day slide, gaining nearly 0.5% on July 15, yet remains capped just below 25,200. For a sustained uptrend, it must decisively breach 25,300–25,350.
- Intraday high touched 25,245, testing the 20-day EMA
- Key support: 25,000 zone, where buyers have historically stepped in
Chart Indicators in Focus
The daily chart formed a bullish candle with a small upper shadow, signalling a bounce from the 25,000 level. However, pressure persists near short-term resistance.
- Stochastic RSI poised for a positive crossover in oversold territory
- RSI climbed above 50, though still showing a negative crossover
According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, “A sustainable move above 25,350 could pave the way for further gains, while 25,000 remains the immediate support.”
Weekly Options Positioning
Open interest data highlights 25,200–25,250 as the near-term hurdle, with 25,000 acting as critical support.
- Max call OI at 26,000, followed by 25,500 and 25,200
- Max put OI at 25,000, then 25,200 and 25,100
- Heavy call writing at 25,200 hints at a potential cap around that strike
Bank Nifty Technicals
The Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle post-Doji, rallying 241 points to 57,007, and crossing its 20-day EMA.
- Support zone: 56,700–56,800, near the rising trendline
- Resistance hurdle: 57,200–57,300; above 57,300 opens path to 57,700 and 58,200
SBI Securities’ Sudeep Shah notes, “Any sustainable move above 57,300 could trigger a sharp rally toward 58,200 in the short term.”
Missing Macro Context
Global equities were buoyed by stable U.S. Treasury yields and softening U.S. CPI data, which may further underpin India’s markets today.
Relatable Takeaway
For traders juggling daily P&L, the dip in volatility offers a chance to scale into positions with tighter stop-losses. Crossing 25,300 could unlock fresh momentum, turning cautious bullish bets into broader market participation.
