Why ChargePoint and Luminar could deliver stronger market-cap gains over the next two years
ChargePoint (CHPT)
ChargePoint manages over 352,000 EV charging ports across the U.S. and Europe.
- Partners with businesses to deploy and operate their own branded charging networks.
- Provides access to 1.25 million+ ports worldwide via roaming agreements.
Its revenue fell 18% in fiscal 2025 due to higher interest rates and a cooling EV market.
- Companies delayed installations amid tougher financing conditions.
- ChargePoint responded by cutting costs, trimming headcount, and introducing dynamic pricing.
Analysts forecast a 19% revenue CAGR through fiscal 2028 as the EV market rebounds.
- Recovery driven by eased financing, renewed fleet electrification, and government incentives.
- Adjusted EBITDA is expected to turn positive by the end of fiscal 2028.
At a $318 million market cap—just 0.8× 2025 sales—ChargePoint looks undervalued.
- If sales grow as forecast and the stock re-rates to 5× forward sales, market cap could hit $3.5 billion by early 2028.
- That represents an 11× upside in two years for those willing to ride the EV recovery.
Luminar Technologies (LAZR)
Luminar develops next-generation lidar systems using a 1,550 nm infrared laser for greater range and resolution.
- Claims its wavelength choice delivers superior object detection in challenging conditions.
- Manufactures critical optical components in-house to control costs and quality.
Major automakers such as Volvo and Audi have committed to Luminar’s lidar for upcoming models.
- Volvo’s EX90 SUV launch delays weighed on 2024 revenue, which rose just 8%.
- Autonomous-vehicle rollouts and new EV platforms should reignite orders.
Analysts expect a 45% revenue CAGR from 2024–2027 as adoption accelerates.
- Agreements with Mercedes and Toyota (announced in 2025) could add tens of millions in annual sales.
- Luminar targets gross-margin breakeven by 2026 through volume scale and automation.
Trading at 1.7× 2025 sales with a $143 million market cap, Luminar is highly speculative.
- If it meets forecasts, grows another 20% in 2028, and re-rates to 10× forward sales, the market cap could soar to $2.7 billion.
- That implies a 19× return in two years for investors comfortable with elevated risk.
Both ChargePoint and Luminar possess clear catalysts—an EV charging recovery and wider lidar deployment—that could let them eclipse Navitas’s $1.2 billion valuation by 2027. Long-term investors seeking asymmetric upside in the technology sector may want to consider adding one or both to their watchlists today.
