From Gift Nifty signals to FII reversal and the US-China trade thaw, here’s everything that could drive market sentiment this week.
1. Gift Nifty Points to Soft Opening
The Gift Nifty traded near 25,855, showing a 50-point discount to the previous Nifty futures close.
- This suggests a muted or negative opening for benchmark indices on Monday.
- Market sentiment is being influenced by mixed global cues and profit booking.
2. Asian Markets Mixed, Japan Closed
Asian markets traded mixed ahead of key Chinese PMI data.
- South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.04% and Kosdaq rose 0.51%, while Japan’s market was shut for a public holiday.
- Hang Seng futures pointed to a positive opening, hinting at selective risk-on sentiment in the region.
3. Wall Street Strengthens Further
All three major U.S. indices closed higher last week, marking the longest monthly winning streak in years.
- S&P 500 rose 2.27% in October, Nasdaq surged 4.7%, and Dow added 2.5%.
- This shows continued strength in U.S. equities, boosting global confidence.
4. US-China Trade Deal Eases Tensions
A key development: China will pause additional export curbs on rare earth metals and end investigations against U.S. semiconductor firms.
- The U.S. will pause new tariffs, signaling a temporary thaw in trade tensions.
- This may improve global trade sentiment, although Indian impact remains indirect.
5. Fiscal Deficit Well Under Control
India’s fiscal deficit for April–September 2025 stood at ₹5.73 lakh crore, just 36.5% of FY26 estimates.
- This reflects strong fiscal discipline, supporting investor confidence.
- The government targets a fiscal deficit of 4.4% of GDP for the full year.
6. FPI Turnaround: October Sees Net Inflows
After three months of outflows, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October.
- FPIs infused ₹14,610 crore into Indian equities last month.
- This reversal could boost near-term market sentiment and liquidity.
7. Auto Sales Surge on Festive Demand
India’s top automakers reported strong YoY growth in October wholesale sales.
- Firms like Maruti, Tata Motors, Mahindra, and Hyundai saw festive season-led volume gains.
- Auto stocks may remain in focus as consumer sentiment improves.
8. GST Collection Grows Despite Tax Cuts
October’s GST collection rose 4.6% YoY to ₹1.96 lakh crore, despite recent rate cuts.
- The robust figure indicates economic resilience and strong consumption trends.
- It also gives the government more fiscal headroom.
9. Gold Prices Fall as Dollar Strengthens
Gold prices declined 0.8% to $3,968.76/oz amid a stronger dollar and cooling US-China friction.
- This could ease inflation hedging demand, pushing capital back toward risk assets.
- Domestic gold prices may mirror the global trend, affecting jewelry and bullion sectors.
10. Crude Oil Edges Up on OPEC Stance
Brent crude rose 0.57% to $65.15/bbl as OPEC paused production hikes for Q1 2026.
- Higher crude prices may weigh on India’s import bill and inflation, potentially influencing RBI policy tone.
- Watch for moves in oil marketing companies and energy stocks.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Mixed Global Cues
Indian equities may start on a flat to negative note, but resilient macro data, foreign fund inflows, and easing trade tensions provide a cushion.
- The market may remain range-bound with a positive bias, as earnings season, geopolitical cues, and global central bank signals evolve.
