Bitcoin Steadies Above $100K as Altcoins Lag, Analysts Predict Summer Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) maintained its footing above the $100,000 mark on Thursday, rebounding to over $103,000 after briefly dipping earlier in the session. While altcoins saw steeper losses, analysts remain confident that the crypto market is in a healthy correction phase, not a reversal.
Bitcoin Recovers as Traders Lock in Profits
Bitcoin’s early session low near $101,000 quickly reversed, with the price climbing back to around $103,000 by afternoon.
- This minor pullback follows a prolonged rally that brought BTC near its all-time highs, prompting some profit-taking.
- Despite the retreat, BTC’s overall structure remains intact, with technical indicators suggesting strong support above six figures.
The CoinDesk 20 Index fell 3%, dragged down by key altcoins such as Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Uniswap (UNI), each shedding 6% to 7%.
- These declines reflect increased volatility in smaller-cap tokens, especially as investors rotate capital into more liquid assets like BTC.
Economic Signals Calm, Markets Unshaken
The broader market context remains favorable, as Thursday’s U.S. economic data showed mixed signals without rattling investor sentiment.
- April retail sales underperformed, while producer prices came in softer than expected.
- Jobless claims stayed consistent, and business activity indices from New York and Philadelphia hinted at mild economic cooling.
Traditional markets responded calmly, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4% and the Nasdaq ending flat, suggesting risk appetite remains resilient.
- These stable equity reactions may support continued strength in crypto, especially bitcoin, as a perceived alternative risk asset.
Analysts View Pullback as Healthy Correction
Market experts suggest that the current dip is not a signal of weakness but part of a broader bullish structure.
- Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, described the drop as a correction within a medium-term uptrend, triggered by profit realization.
- He noted that equity momentum slowed after the China-U.S. tariff delay, which also impacted riskier assets like BTC.
Kirill Kretov of CoinPanel emphasized that moves under 5% are often just market noise, especially in thin liquidity conditions.
- He explained that even small sell-offs can lead to exaggerated price movements, as short-term traders react quickly to volatility.
Funding Rates and Positioning Support Bullish Outlook
Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, pointed to BTC’s recent exit from one of the longest stretches of sub-neutral funding rates, a sign of defensive trading in derivatives markets.
- He compared current market behavior to risk-averse patterns in late 2023 and early 2024, far from the euphoria seen at previous peaks.
- This suggests that BTC above $100,000 is not yet overbought, leaving room for upside.
Credit Expansion and Dollar Weakness Fuel Crypto
According to Steno Research, the real catalyst behind the ongoing rally is a quiet surge in private credit growth, particularly in the U.S. and Europe.
- Unlike previous bull markets driven by central bank liquidity, this cycle is powered by bank-driven credit expansion, offering stealth support for risk assets.
Samuel Shiffman, analyst at Steno, dismissed the notion that China’s liquidity injections are the primary driver.
- He argued that Western credit expansion is the more significant factor, aligning with broader improvements in financial conditions.
Shiffman added that weakness in the U.S. dollar is historically correlated with BTC price gains, and current models suggest this tailwind could last through June or early July.
- However, he cautioned that the easing environment may peak by August, potentially challenging the rally’s momentum in the second half of summer.
Summer Outlook: Rally Not Over Yet
Despite short-term consolidation, the broader crypto narrative remains optimistic.
- Bitcoin’s resilience above $100K, combined with underlying macro and credit trends, supports expectations of further gains.
- Analysts warn of increased complexity beyond July, but until then, market conditions appear favorable for continued upside.
