XRP has seen a strong rebound over the past month, surging more than 50% from its local low of $1.80 to a recent high of $2.65. However, short-term technical patterns suggest that the rally may be facing upside exhaustion, raising the possibility of a pullback in the days ahead.
- Improving market sentiment and growing anticipation of an altseason helped fuel XRP’s rise.
- Current chart formations, though, indicate a shift in momentum that traders should watch closely.
XRP Forms Double Top, Signals Reversal Risk
XRP’s price action has created a double top near the $2.65 level, typically seen as a bearish reversal pattern.
- The structure includes two distinct peaks and a neckline at $2.47, which XRP recently broke below.
- A confirmed break under this neckline sets a downside target near $2.30, reflecting weakening bullish momentum.
If XRP fails to reclaim the $2.65 level soon, the double top remains valid, implying potential for further downside.
Rising Wedge Breakdown Suggests Deeper Correction
Adding to the bearish signals, XRP recently broke out of a rising wedge—another classic reversal pattern.
- The breakdown below the wedge’s lower trendline aligns with fading bullish momentum, especially after multiple rejected attempts to breach the upper boundary.
- XRP is currently testing support at the 50-4H EMA, a level that often serves as short-term support in trending markets.
If the support fails, the wedge pattern projects a decline of about 20%, pointing to a potential drop toward $1.94.
Liquidation Risks Could Intensify the Drop
XRP’s price is hovering around the $2.00–$2.04 zone, where a large concentration of leveraged long positions exists—totaling roughly $50 million, based on CoinGlass data.
- A breakdown below this level could trigger a long squeeze, forcing traders to exit their positions, adding downward pressure.
- Such events can lead to rapid price drops as stop-losses and liquidations cascade across the market.
On-Chain Data Shows Traders in “Denial” Phase
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has entered the Belief–Denial zone, a phase where traders remain overly optimistic despite fading momentum.
- Historically, this zone has preceded significant market corrections, as seen before major drops in 2018 and 2021.
- If similar patterns repeat, XRP may face additional short-term losses, reinforcing the bearish signals from technical charts.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
Despite short-term caution, XRP’s long-term technical charts still paint a bullish picture with multiple upside targets.
- A successful breakout from a multimonth falling wedge points to a possible rally toward $3.69 by June, a 45% gain from current levels.
- However, failure to hold above the wedge’s trendline and key EMA supports could invalidate this setup, risking a drop toward $1.75.
Other extended projections based on Fibonacci extensions and symmetrical triangles suggest even higher targets—$5.24 and up to $17, depending on future momentum and broader market conditions.
- These projections reflect strong long-term bullish sentiment, reinforced by increasing whale flows and market structure.
In conclusion, while XRP’s rally appears paused in the short term due to technical weakness and leveraged pressure, its long-term trajectory remains intact, suggesting the bull run is not over—just on hold.
