With a major redesign, rising sales, and global demand, Apple sees renewed iPhone momentum—though investor expectations remain high.
iPhone 17 Sparks Apple’s Best Smartphone Growth in Years
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is experiencing its strongest iPhone growth since the pandemic, thanks to the launch of the iPhone 17, which marks the company’s most significant redesign in years.
- Forecasted iPhone revenue for fiscal 2025 is $209.3 billion, a 4% increase from the previous year.
- In 2026, iPhone revenue could climb to $218.9 billion, up nearly 5%, according to Visible Alpha.
- This contrasts sharply with prior years, where iPhone sales were flat in 2024 and fell 2% in 2023.
Analysts now expect unit sales to rise toward 235 million by 2026, with long-term estimates reaching 240–260 million units annually by decade’s end.
Demand Indicators Suggest a Strong Cycle
Multiple early indicators confirm robust consumer interest:
- Bank of America reports 13% longer shipping times for iPhone 17 compared to last year’s model.
- Carrier checks and Apple Store data point to higher pre-order volumes and increased foot traffic.
- Lines outside stores have returned, underscoring renewed upgrade enthusiasm.
What’s driving the demand?
- Generous trade-in programs and subsidies in China have made the iPhone 17 more accessible.
- Key hardware upgrades—notably in camera, battery life, and display—have motivated customers to replace older devices.
Steady Pricing Amid Tariff Risks Boosts Consumer Confidence
Despite renewed tariff threats—including a potential 100% import duty floated by former President Donald Trump—Apple has held prices steady.
- The company absorbed the cost risks, a move that helped sustain demand during the critical launch period.
This decision, paired with broader trade-in incentives, minimized friction for buyers and supported holiday-quarter momentum.
AI Delay a Speed Bump, But Hardware Leads the Way
While Apple’s AI features have been delayed, creating some investor hesitation, the hardware-led resurgence in iPhone demand is restoring market confidence.
- iPhones still account for over 50% of Apple’s $390 billion in annual revenue, making the success of this product cycle crucial for broader financial performance.
- Apple’s fiscal Q4 earnings report on October 30 will offer the first snapshot of iPhone 17’s early impact.
If results beat expectations, it could signal a sustainable growth cycle well into 2025, not just a launch-driven bump.
Analyst Sentiment: Cautious Optimism Ahead of Q4
Wall Street remains generally supportive, though not without caution:
- Gene Munster (Deepwater) said the iPhone 17 launch was stronger than expected.
- Francisco Jeronimo (IDC) noted Apple Store traffic is the highest in years.
- However, Jefferies downgraded AAPL to Underperform, warning that investor expectations may have outpaced reality following the recent rally.
The current analyst consensus is Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $255.84, implying a modest 1.14% upside from current levels.
Is Apple Back on a Growth Track?
The iPhone 17’s early success signals more than a successful product launch—it may be the inflection point Apple needed after two stagnant years. While AI delays and valuation concerns remain, Apple’s ability to execute in hardware, pricing, and customer engagement reinforces its position at the top of the consumer tech food chain.
All eyes now turn to October 30, where results may prove whether this momentum is short-term excitement or long-term revival.
