Tesla’s (TSLA) vision for autonomous mobility has captured renewed attention on Wall Street, with Benchmark reaffirming the EV leader as its “Top Pick” and significantly raising its price target based on robotaxi optimism.
Benchmark Raises Tesla Price Target on Robotaxi Momentum
Benchmark has elevated its price target for Tesla from $350 to $475 following the robotaxi service launch in Austin, Texas.
- The revised target, representing roughly a 46% upside from current prices, is anchored on a premium 53.9x 2028 EBITDA valuation—a notable contrast to the sector’s 27.1x average.
- Despite Tesla shares declining over 19% year-to-date amid weak demand signals and competitive pressures, Benchmark remains confident in the company’s autonomous strategy.
Analyst Perspective: Controlled Rollout and Regulatory Tailwinds
Benchmark analyst Michael Legg highlighted the “controlled and safety-first approach” of Tesla’s Austin pilot, emphasizing the importance of regulatory and public approval in unlocking future scale.
- Upcoming autonomous vehicle regulations in Texas (effective September 1, 2025) are expected to support trust-building and regional expansion for Tesla’s self-driving ambitions.
- Tesla’s ability to impress both regulators and the public is seen as a pivotal factor in accelerating deployment to other cities.
Tesla vs. Waymo: Scalability and Cost Advantages
While Waymo (Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle arm) currently leads with operations in four U.S. cities and about 250,000 weekly rides, Legg argues that Tesla’s approach holds greater scalability potential.
- The Model Y’s comparatively lower cost offers Tesla a key edge over the more expensive Waymo vehicles, potentially enabling more rapid and profitable scaling.
- Tesla closed Q1 2025 with $37 billion in cash and over $600 million in free cash flow, providing ample resources for strategic investments in automation and robotics.
Wall Street Outlook: Cautious on Q2, Bullish Long Term
Recent weeks have seen mixed sentiment from Wall Street regarding Tesla’s upcoming Q2 delivery results:
- Benchmark’s Legg maintains that anticipated Q2 softness is already reflected in the stock price, expecting a rebound in the latter half of 2025.
- RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan forecasts Q2 deliveries at 366,000 units, below the FactSet consensus of 390,000, but notes momentum from the refreshed Model Y and increased plant utilization.
- Narayan, who also rates TSLA a “Buy,” has set a price target of $307.
Is Tesla Stock a Buy or Sell? Diverging Views
- Despite Benchmark’s optimism, the broader analyst consensus is currently at “Hold,” with an average price target of $291.31—implying a 10.6% downside risk from current levels.
- The divergence in price targets reflects uncertainty over near-term demand and execution risks versus confidence in Tesla’s evolving role as an automation and robotics powerhouse.
Key Takeaways and Recent Developments
- Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Austin has reignited debate over the company’s future and valuation.
- The rollout comes as the autonomous vehicle landscape heats up, with regulatory milestones and increased competition shaping the path ahead.
- Investors and analysts will be closely watching how Tesla navigates upcoming challenges and leverages its cash reserves to cement leadership in both EVs and autonomy.
