As Rivian narrows its 2025 guidance, Canaccord’s George Gianarikas remains bullish, banking on the upcoming R2 to restore investor confidence
A Beat That Felt Like a Miss
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) surprised on the upside with its Q3 2025 deliveries, handing over 13,201 vehicles, ahead of Wall Street’s expectations (~12,000). This marked a 24% sequential increase and 32% year-over-year growth. Yet, investors weren’t impressed. The stock slid on Thursday, trimming gains from a 35% rally over the past two months.
So, what went wrong?
The Real Concern: Q4 Guidance
While the Q3 numbers were solid, Rivian’s revised full-year delivery outlook disappointed. The EV maker now expects to deliver between 41,500 and 43,500 vehicles, narrowing the previous range of 40,000 to 46,000.
This implies only about 10,000 deliveries in Q4, raising eyebrows over potential production bottlenecks, demand softening, or cautious positioning ahead of the 2026 R2 launch.
Analyst View: It’s About the Trend, Not the Quarter
George Gianarikas of Canaccord Genuity weighed in, arguing that Rivian’s recent stock action isn’t surprising.
“It ultimately comes down to earnings revisions trends,” Gianarikas noted, suggesting investors are reacting less to delivery numbers and more to the persistence of downward estimates on revenue and profitability.
Rivian’s stock, despite occasional rallies, has largely declined since its 2021 IPO, with profitability still elusive and market sentiment mixed.
Still Bullish on the Big Picture
Despite the short-term wobble, Gianarikas remains confident in Rivian’s fundamentals. He lauds:
- The technology stack
- Its vertically integrated approach
- The management team
- And, crucially, its vehicles
The real story, he emphasizes, is not 2025 guidance — it’s the upcoming R2 model, due in 1H26.
“The R2 looks fantastic and is priced appropriately,” says Gianarikas, positioning it as Rivian’s moment to leap ahead of non-Tesla rivals amid a broader EV industry pullback.
With Ford and GM scaling back on their EV ambitions, Rivian’s chance to become the next American auto icon appears ripe.
Will RIVN Regain Its Mojo?
Gianarikas’s view: Yes — but it hinges on the R2 delivering more than just aesthetic appeal.
He believes once R2 production ramps up, positive earnings revisions could finally reverse Rivian’s stock trend. He draws comparisons to tech industry shifts, like the smartphone and streaming revolutions, which were similarly underestimated early on.
He maintains a Buy rating and a Street-high price target of $21, implying 54% upside from current levels.
Street Consensus: Still Cautious
Not everyone shares Gianarikas’s optimism. The broader analyst consensus is Hold, reflecting caution around:
- Persistent losses
- Cash burn
- EV market softness
- Competition from legacy automakers and Tesla
The average price target of $13.78 suggests the stock is fairly valued for now.
Rivian beat delivery estimates but spooked markets by trimming its 2025 guidance. Despite the pullback, Canaccord’s George Gianarikas remains bullish, calling the upcoming R2 a game-changer. He assigns a Buy rating with a $21 target, while most analysts adopt a wait-and-see stance.