Despite soft Q4 numbers, Wedbush’s Dan Ives maintains Wall Street’s highest price target for TSLA—citing AI, FSD, and robotics as Tesla’s next growth engines.
Tesla Misses Delivery Targets—But Analysts Aren’t Panicking
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its Q4 and full-year 2025 delivery figures, falling just short of internal guidance:
- Q4 deliveries: 418,227 vehicles
- Q4 production: 434,358 vehicles
- Full-year deliveries: 1,636,129 units vs. 1,640,752 guidance
- Production total: 1,654,667 vehicles for the year
Though the shortfall was minor (~4,000 vehicles), the numbers reflect ongoing headwinds: loss of U.S. EV tax credits, European pricing pressure, and sluggish volume growth.
But Wedbush analyst Dan Ives isn’t wavering.
“Deliveries were better than feared and a step forward,” Ives wrote—maintaining his Street-high $600 price target and Buy rating on the stock.
That target implies more than 50% upside from current levels.
The Real Tesla Story? AI, Robotaxis, and Energy, Says Ives
What separates Ives from the consensus is where he thinks Tesla’s future value will come from. It’s no longer just about cars.
Ives argues that Tesla’s long-term bull case is anchored in:
- Full Self-Driving (FSD) revenue streams
- Dojo and AI infrastructure
- Optimus robotics platform
- Robotaxi networks and mobility-as-a-service
- Energy deployments, which hit a record 46.7 GWh in 2025
“Investors are starting to look past pure delivery numbers,” Ives notes. “This is about Tesla becoming the Apple-AI of transportation.”
Indeed, Tesla’s energy storage business quietly posted a banner year, even as vehicle margins came under pressure.
Wall Street Still Skeptical—But Could Rerate in 2026
Despite Ives’ bullish view, Wall Street consensus remains cautious:
- Consensus rating: Hold
- Average price target: $393.90
- Implied downside: -10.2% from current levels
The gap between Ives’ vision and consensus reflects a broader split:
- Bulls see Tesla evolving into an AI-driven mobility and energy platform
- Bears still focus on delivery volatility, margin compression, and valuation concerns
The risk-reward calculus hinges on whether Tesla can monetize non-automotive segments fast enough to offset uneven car growth in the next 12–18 months.
Is TSLA Still a Buy in 2026?
For believers in Tesla’s long-duration growth thesis, 2026 could mark an inflection year:
- FSD features may get closer to regulatory clearance
- Dojo chip expansion could power AI inference use cases
- Energy storage could scale as utilities embrace renewables
- Robotaxi announcements (or pilots) could materially shift sentiment
Dan Ives is betting big on that transition—assigning premium value now to verticals many analysts still discount.
“Tesla isn’t just a car company. It’s an AI infrastructure and robotics company hiding in plain sight,” he emphasizes.
TL;DR:
Tesla’s Q4 deliveries fell slightly short, but Dan Ives of Wedbush isn’t fazed. He maintains his Street-high $600 price target, betting on AI, Robotaxis, and energy—not just EVs. While Wall Street consensus remains cautious with a $393.90 target and Hold rating, 2026 could be Tesla’s pivot year beyond auto.
