Wall Street sees stronger momentum in Tesla despite valuation risks, while Rivian remains a long-term growth story with near-term headwinds
Tesla (TSLA): Steady Execution, Strong Delivery Beat
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) remains a dominant force in the EV market with global scale, operational efficiency, and a growing portfolio of technologies beyond cars, such as AI and autonomous driving.
- Stock Performance:
- +95% over the past year
- +6.2% year-to-date
- Q3 Deliveries:
- Delivered 497,099 vehicles, far exceeding estimates of 439,800
Wall Street expects:
- Q3 EPS: $0.53 (down 26% YoY)
- Revenue: $26.14 billion (up 4% YoY)
- Earnings Date: October 22, 2025
Analyst Sentiment:
- Rob Wertheimer (Melius Research): Buy, $520 price target (+19% upside)
- Itay Michaeli (TD Cowen): Buy, $509 price target, citing AI and autonomous driving potential
Tesla is gaining renewed attention for its full self-driving progress, AI infrastructure, and profit discipline, which may help offset the impact of softer margins.
Rivian (RIVN): Early Growth with High Potential, But Still Unprofitable
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) is still ramping up as an early-stage EV manufacturer, best known for its R1T pickup and R1S SUV. While its brand and vehicle quality are well-regarded, the path to profitability remains a concern.
- Stock Performance:
- +29% in the past year
- -1.35% year-to-date
- Q3 Deliveries:
- 13,200 vehicles, slightly above expectations
Wall Street expects:
- Q3 EPS: Loss of $0.74 per share
- Revenue: $1.52 billion (vs. $874M YoY)
- Earnings Date: Early November
Analyst Sentiment:
- Dan Levy (Barclays): Hold, $14 price target, notes muted delivery growth
- Analysts see improving gross margins and the R2 model launch as potential upside drivers in 2025
Rivian’s ability to scale production, manage costs, and reduce cash burn will be crucial for future upside.
TSLA vs. RIVN: What Does Wall Street Say?
| Stock | Consensus Rating | Average Price Target | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | Hold | $365.88 | -16.06% |
| Rivian | Hold | $13.83 | +5.9% |
At first glance, Rivian appears to offer more upside based on analyst price targets. However, analysts remain cautious due to its lack of profitability, execution risks, and competition.
Tesla, despite a modest projected downside, has drawn fresh bullish calls from top analysts, citing strong Q3 deliveries, AI prospects, and its expanding global footprint.
Bottom Line: Tesla Offers More Strategic Clarity, Rivian Is a Longer-Term Bet
- Tesla appears better positioned heading into Q3 earnings due to its delivery beat, broader ecosystem, and profitability track record.
- Rivian holds promise as a long-term growth story, but is still facing execution challenges, cash burn, and slower ramp-ups.
For near-term exposure with greater clarity and institutional backing, Tesla seems to be the better pick going into earnings. Rivian may appeal to risk-tolerant investors with a longer time horizon.
Tesla and Rivian both hold “Hold” ratings, but Tesla looks stronger ahead of Q3 earnings with higher deliveries, profit stability, and bullish analyst calls. Rivian offers modest upside but remains a long-term play, still facing operational hurdles. Analysts favor Tesla for near-term strength despite valuation risks.