Adani Ports Share Price Surges 6%: Jefferies Sees 10% More Upside — Here’s Why
Adani Ports’ share price climbed over 6% in intraday trading on Monday, closing at ₹1346 on the BSE. According to global brokerage Jefferies, there is still nearly 10% upside potential, with a revised target price of ₹1475. Below are the three core reasons backing this bullish forecast.
1. Strategic Shift Toward Margin-Led Growth
Jefferies highlights that the company is transitioning from volume-centric growth to a margin-led strategy by delivering end-to-end logistics solutions.
- Management commentary emphasized absolute EBITDA growth over volume figures, signaling a clear strategic focus shift.
- FY26 volume guidance stands at 505–515 million tonnes, marking a 12–14% year-on-year growth, which aligns with analysts’ estimates.
- Jefferies has subsequently raised FY26E–FY27E EBITDA estimates by 3–4%, reflecting improved profitability.
This margin improvement aligns with operational efficiencies, helping offset volume shortfalls in specific segments.
2. FY25 Margin Gains and Strong FY26 EBITDA Outlook
In FY25, the company successfully countered a 7% YoY drop in coal volumes with improved logistics and non-coal volume growth.
- Non-coal cargo rose 16% YoY, mainly due to 22% growth in container traffic.
- International volumes surged 70% YoY, contributing to a total of 450 million tonnes, close to the company’s 460–480mt guidance.
Jefferies also sees robust EBITDA growth in FY26, driven by:
- Volume gains from a ramp-up in marine and logistics operations,
- Integrated utility play across services,
- Improved operating leverage as scale increases.
Trucking and Marine segments are projected to grow by 3–4x and 2x, respectively.
- Estimated capex for FY26 is ₹110–120 billion, directed mainly toward domestic port expansion, with additional investment in international ports, logistics, marine infrastructure (5%), and digitization (12%).
3. Long-Term Growth via Diversification and Scale
The company reiterated its target of achieving 1 billion tonnes of cargo volume by 2030, representing a 17% CAGR across its domestic and international operations.
- This growth is underpinned by capacity expansion in both physical port infrastructure and digital logistics solutions.
- In FY25, Adani Ports began offering trucking and international freight services using a low-asset model, aiming to strengthen collaborations with shipping lines.
The Marine division is expected to deliver a 3x EBITDA increase by FY27, reaching ₹1700 crore, with expansion focused on the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and West Africa.
- Jefferies believes these developments mark the opening of new growth avenues through logistics integration and global diversification.
Disclaimer
The views above are based on analyst commentary and do not constitute financial advice. Investors should consult certified professionals before making any investment decisions.
