Markets Brace for Turbulence as Israel-Iran Conflict Deepens; Sensex, Nifty Signal Gap-Down Opening
Middle East tensions rattle global sentiment; FIIs offload shares while DIIs provide support—crude oil spikes, volatility set to rise.
Escalating Geopolitical Risk Weighs on Indian Markets
The Indian equity markets are poised for a weak start on June 13, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a gap-down opening around 24,600, a drop of over 370 points, as the Israel-Iran conflict escalates and reignites fears of regional instability.
- Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty reversed early gains in the previous session, ending in a broad-based selloff.
- The conflict has triggered a sharp surge in crude oil prices, with an 8% spike on Friday alone, and a 12% rise over the week—the largest weekly gain since 2022.
Institutional Activity: FIIs Sell, DIIs Absorb
On June 12, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold equities worth Rs 3,831 crore, marking a continued selling trend.
- Year-to-date, FIIs have pulled out over Rs 1.24 lakh crore, raising concerns about persistent outflows.
- Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers with Rs 9,393 crore in purchases, and over Rs 3.16 lakh crore cumulatively in 2025.
Key Technical Levels to Track
- The Nifty faced rejection near 25,200 and now hovers around its 20-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
- Immediate support lies at 24,800; a breakdown could invite deeper losses.
- Resistance is pegged at 25,100, where bearish pressure may persist.
- A bearish engulfing pattern and RSI dip to 55 signal caution.
- The Nifty Bank Index saw mild profit booking and retreated toward the 56,000–56,200 support zone.
- A sustained fall below 55,300 could shift the trend bearish.
- Upside resistance continues at 56,700.
Volatility Indicators and Sentiment Gauges
- The India VIX, a barometer for market fear, rose 2.54% to 14.02, staying below critical levels but signaling rising caution.
- The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dipped to 0.92 from 0.97, indicating a decline in bullish positioning by traders, though not yet at oversold extremes.
Outlook: Volatility Ahead
With Middle East tensions escalating, markets remain fragile.
- Traders and investors should prepare for elevated volatility, particularly in sectors sensitive to oil prices and geopolitical risks.
- Technical indicators suggest near-term caution, despite the medium-term uptrend remaining intact.