India’s metals and mining sector is entering FY27 on a stronger footing after a sharp improvement in the March quarter. Better steel prices, steady demand and government support have improved the earnings outlook, according to a report by Mirae Asset Sharekhan.
The brokerage expects a broad recovery in sector earnings during FY27. It remains positive on eight stocks and has identified Gravita India, Welspun Corp, JSW Steel, NMDC and Coal India as its preferred picks.
Strong March quarter
Business conditions improved during Q4FY26.
Steel prices rebounded from the lows seen in December 2025. Demand remained healthy and realizations improved across major metal categories.
Companies covered by the report posted combined revenue of Rs 1.91 lakh crore, up 15% year-on-year.
Combined adjusted profit rose 56% to Rs 44,077 crore.
Steel prices recover
India’s steel industry maintained strong growth in FY26.
Domestic steel consumption rose 8% year-on-year to 164 million tonnes. Crude steel production increased 10.7% to 168.4 million tonnes.
Prices also moved higher.
- HRC prices recovered from Rs 46,500 per tonne in December 2025 to Rs 54,500 per tonne by February 2026.
- Prices later climbed to around Rs 57,500 per tonne.
- Rebar prices have risen 10-15% since January 2026.
- Tight supplies and healthy construction demand supported the increase.
A 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports also helped domestic producers improve pricing and profitability.
Mining activity stays firm
Mining growth remained healthy during the year.
The estimated value of mineral production stood at Rs 92,846 crore in H1FY26. That was about 16% higher than a year earlier.
Investment activity also remained strong.
Listed metals and mining companies spent around Rs 10.5 trillion on capital expenditure during FY26. The figure was up nearly 15% year-on-year.
Government measures aimed at critical minerals, specialty steel and supply security provided additional support.
Aluminium and copper prices remain supportive
Non-ferrous companies continued to benefit from favourable market conditions.
Average LME aluminium prices rose:
- 22% year-on-year.
- 13% quarter-on-quarter.
- To $3,193 per tonne in Q4FY26.
Spot aluminium prices touched a four-year high of $3,540 per tonne in April 2026.
Supply constraints and China’s 45 MTPA smelter capacity cap supported prices.
Copper prices remained in the $9,000-$9,500 per tonne range. Demand from electrification and energy transition projects kept the market firm.
Cost pressures remain
Not everything is improving.
Higher raw material costs could affect margins.
Coking coal prices rose to around $225 per tonne, up roughly 11% both year-on-year and sequentially.
The report said the coking coal segment remains the weakest part of the industry because of:
- Heavy dependence on imports.
- Operational challenges.
- Weak domestic production conditions.
The brokerage has a positive view on the following companies:
| Company | Target Price | Current Price | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| JSW Steel | 1,500 | 1,294 | 16% |
| NMDC | 105 | 88.5 | 19% |
| SAIL | 220 | 182 | 21% |
| Coal India | 530 | 452 | 17% |
| Gravita India | 2,100 | 1,724 | 22% |
| Ratnamani Metals | 2,900 | 2,617 | 11% |
| MOIL | 360 | 296 | 22% |
| Welspun Corp | 1,500 | 1,402 | 7% |
Outlook for FY27
Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects FY27 to bring a recovery in earnings for the sector.
The brokerage sees support from:
- Stable demand.
- Higher steel and aluminium prices.
- Infrastructure spending.
- Government policies.
Rising input costs could cause some short-term volatility. Even so, the report said the sector is entering FY27 with better earnings visibility.
TL;DR:
Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects India’s metals and mining sector to see an earnings recovery in FY27. It remains positive on eight stocks, led by Gravita India, JSW Steel, NMDC, Coal India and Welspun Corp, supported by stronger prices and steady demand.
AI summary:
- Sharekhan expects a sector-wide earnings recovery in FY27.
- Steel consumption reached 164 million tonnes in FY26.
- Mining companies spent about Rs 10.5 trillion on capex.
- Higher coking coal prices remain a risk.
- Gravita India, JSW Steel and NMDC are among the preferred picks.
