Despite AI momentum and export relief, caution builds over NVDA’s soaring valuation
Nvidia’s Wild Ride—and What Comes Next
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has staged a powerful comeback, rebounding ~83% since hitting a 52-week low during April’s Liberation Day slump. The surge has been fueled by renewed investor confidence in AI demand, and most recently, by a regulatory breakthrough: the Trump administration has cleared Nvidia to resume AI chip exports to China, lifting a critical overhang that cost the company an estimated $4.5 billion in revenue during Fiscal Q1 2026.
With that restriction lifted, bulls see a clear path forward—but not everyone agrees that now is the time to jump in.
A Cautious Note from a Top-Ranked Investor
Brett Ashcroft Green, a top 4% investor on TipRanks, has downgraded Nvidia to Hold, citing concerns that the rally may have gone too far, too fast.
“As enthusiastic as I am, the run has just been too far too fast,” Green explained. “I am downgrading NVDA.”
Green doesn’t dispute Nvidia’s fundamental strength. In fact, he remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, especially as sovereign AI—nationalized AI infrastructure adapted to local laws—emerges as a potential catalyst. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has long touted sovereign AI as a growth engine, and recent U.S. government moves to adopt AI tools (such as Elon Musk’s Grok) suggest early momentum.
However, Green flags two major concerns:
- Supply constraints – Nvidia may struggle to meet global demand, limiting near-term upside even as demand accelerates.
- Valuation expansion – Nvidia’s Forward P/E ratio has climbed from 21.31x in April (third-lowest in the Magnificent 7) to 39.75x today—now the second-highest.
“If you own it, hold it and enjoy the ride,” Green says. “If not, I’d personally wait for better prices as the market basks in giddiness.”
Wall Street Still Sees Upside—but Limited
Despite Green’s caution, Wall Street remains bullish:
- Consensus rating: Strong Buy
- Average price target: $182.06
- Implied upside: ~6% from current levels
While sentiment remains positive, the narrow upside suggests much of the expected growth may already be priced in. Analysts may revise their price targets in coming weeks, especially if Nvidia posts another earnings beat or further AI contract wins.
Bottom Line: Hold for Now, Watch for Entry Later
Nvidia remains a pillar of the AI revolution, with unmatched leadership in high-performance computing. But for now, investors may want to wait for a pullback or clearer catalyst before adding to positions.
