Cyclone Alert Eased: IMD Says Low-Pressure System Unlikely to Intensify
Subheadline: Moderate Risk for Depression Over Arabian Sea, Heavy Rain to Persist Along India’s Western Coast
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its earlier warning regarding a low-pressure area over the east-central Arabian Sea, stating it is now unlikely to intensify into a cyclonic storm. While initial models suggested possible escalation into Cyclone Shakhti, latest observations indicate only moderate potential for the system to develop into a depression over the next 24 hours.
Cyclone Shakhti Likely Averted
- The system, which formed earlier this week, was being closely monitored for potential intensification.
- If upgraded, it would have been named Cyclone Shakhti, symbolizing “power.”
- However, the IMD’s updated model guidance has withdrawn the likelihood of it developing into a full-fledged depression or cyclone.
- The proximity to the western coast is disrupting the system’s strength and preventing cyclone formation.
Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
- The IMD reported low to moderate vertical wind shear, favorable poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures, typically conducive for cyclonic growth.
- However, coastal interference and variable wind anomalies — including Rossby and Kelvin waves and strong easterlies and westerlies (5–7 m/s) — are limiting vertical development.
Despite this, the well-marked low-pressure system will remain active and is expected to drift northward, continuing to fuel heavy rainfall along India’s western coast.
Heavy Rainfall Continues Along the Western Coast
According to the IMD’s latest weather bulletin:
- Konkan and Goa will see extremely heavy rainfall between May 23 and 25.
- Coastal and South Interior Karnataka will receive intense showers from May 24 to 27.
- Madhya Maharashtra is forecasted to experience heavy rain on May 25.
- Yellow alert issued for Mumbai as localised flooding is possible.
Bay of Bengal Monitoring
The IMD has also highlighted the potential for another low-pressure system to form in the Bay of Bengal around May 27, particularly in the north and west-central sectors.
- There is divergence among global weather models regarding the classification and impact of this system.
- The system may intensify within 48 hours of formation, though uncertainties remain.
Monsoon Onset in Sight
Encouraging signs for the southwest monsoon’s arrival in Kerala have emerged. The IMD projects:
- Monsoon onset within 2 days over Kerala and surrounding areas.
- It is expected to advance across the Lakshadweep area, parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maldives, Comorin, and Bay of Bengal regions, gradually covering northeastern states.
Summary of Key Developments
- Cyclone unlikely: IMD downgrades development threat over Arabian Sea.
- Heavy rainfall persists: Konkan, Goa, and Karnataka to see significant downpours.
- Yellow alert: Mumbai and coastal Maharashtra advised caution.
- Bay of Bengal: New low-pressure system could emerge on May 27.
- Monsoon set to begin in Kerala within the next 48 hours.
Advisory
Residents in rainfall-affected regions are urged to:
- Avoid flood-prone areas, especially near coastal zones.
- Stay updated with official IMD alerts and local bulletins.
- Prepare for potential travel delays and power disruptions.
- Farmers should adjust sowing schedules in response to forecast variability.
